Brent pulls away from WTI after October's expiry

On November contracts from Tuesday, when WTI's October contract expired, ICE Brent rose 5.1% and NYMEX WTI 2.1%, by our calculation from Reuters settlements. The price service shows a large WTI fall for the week because its WTI appears to have changed contract. US crude stocks rose while Midwest refining and imports of Canadian crude fell. And gold, mostly through its price, is over half of Canada's export gain beyond the United States. ³

Copper (the service's LME-XCU) rose 1.5% to the highest of the 49 weekly closes we hold; the World Bank's August LME average was the highest in the monthly series we hold, which begins in 2000. Gold (the service's XAU) fell 2.1% and has fallen in four of the past five weeks. Over 13 weeks, on the service's indicative quotes, which name no contract and may span changes, wheat is up 34.0% and corn 28.1%, while cattle are down 15.0%. ^{4, 5}

What the oil prices measure. WTI (the service's WTIOIL) fell 6.6% and Brent (the service's BRENTOIL) rose 1.2%. The service names no contract: its WTI sat near October's settlement on September 18 and November's on Friday, after October expired, so that change appears to include the switch; its Brent on September 18 sat 1.68 dollars below the settlement, unexplained. We compare one contract from Tuesday, when October expired. November WTI rose 2.1% to Friday and Brent 5.1%, so Brent's premium widened from 8.73 dollars to 11.91. Brent's front month was roughly flat for the week; sources differ on its sign. A US crude build, attacks on Gulf oil facilities and Washington's talk of curbing diesel exports coincided with the widening; the evidence does not show which drove it. ^{3, 6, 7, 8, 9}

Refining. US refinery use fell to 94.0% in the week to September 18, the Energy Information Administration reported, still 3.7 points above the 2021 to 2025 average for that week by our calculation. Commercial crude stocks rose 3.0 million barrels, 76% of it at Cushing. ^{10, 11}

Diesel. By our calculation from EIA spot prices, New York Harbor diesel averaged 115.82 dollars a barrel above WTI at Cushing, spot to spot, that week, against 36.41 a year earlier. ¹²

Hormuz and gas. Reuters, citing Kpler, judged crude flows out of Hormuz roughly on track with the previous week's 49.2 million barrels. Natural gas (the service's NG) rose 9.7%. ^{13, 14}

Copper. The International Copper Study Group reported on Thursday that exchange stocks reached 997,600 tonnes at the end of August, the most since June 2003. By our calculation COMEX's gain equalled 94% of the net rise since December and the LME's 35%, while Shanghai's fell. UBS, as reported by Market Index (secondhand), said LME and Shanghai stocks had fallen a combined 149,400 tonnes since early July while COMEX's rose 91,200 tonnes, a net fall of 58,200 tonnes. ^{15, 16}

Canola. Statistics Canada reported on Friday that August's canola crush, 1.24 million tonnes, was 42.5% above a year earlier and second only to July in its table since January 2012. By our calculation the year-on-year rise went from 7% in March to 21% in April, but April's crush was only 1.4% above March's, so the jump came mostly from a weak April 2025. Cargill's Regina plant became operational on April 21; crushing rose most in July, by 13%. The Canadian Grain Commission's process-elevator count shows only 3.1% more this crop year, a gap the data do not resolve. ^{17, 18, 19}

Potash. President Trump wrote of buying Belarusian potash for "substantially less" than Canada's. Canada supplied 79% of US potash imports from 2021 to 2024, the US Geological Survey estimates. ^{20, 21}

Rates. The Federal Reserve raised its range to 3.75 to 4% on September 16; the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on September 2. TD Economics' tables of September 17 keep the Bank there through 2027, while Scotiabank expects a first increase in December. ^{22, 23, 24, 25}

Trade. Washington and Beijing extended their trade truce to January 10. The US trade representative said there was "no urgency" for a deal with Canada. ^{26, 27}

Crude. US crude imports from Canada fell to 3.25 million barrels a day in the week to September 18, from 4.35 million, the EIA reported, and Canada's share of US imports to 55% from 62%. By our calculation the drop was 3.6 standard deviations of weekly changes since June 2010, though the level is within the range of recent years. Midwest refinery use fell to 89.0% from 100.0% after Exxon's Joliet refinery, built for heavy Canadian crude, went offline on September 13, Reuters reported. Public data cannot tie the fall to one plant. ^{11, 28}

Wheat. Wheat exports (excluding durum) in the crop year's first seven weeks ran 48% ahead of a year earlier and, by our calculation from Canadian Grain Commission data, 21% above the best of the previous eight years. The USDA expects the year's exports near last year's, so the figures suggest early shipping. ^{18, 29}

The dollar. By our calculation from EIA's Europe Brent spot price and Federal Reserve data, weekly moves in Brent and the Canadian dollar correlated at 0.28 over ten years but 0.01 over the past three. ³⁰

Mostly gold, mostly price. By our calculation from Statistics Canada's customs figures, domestic exports to countries other than the United States rose C$53.4 billion in the year to July; gold was 56.8% of the rise and crude oil, next, 14.2%. Of gold's part, 67% was a higher value per gram and 33% more grams. In US dollars, value per gram rose 53.5%, against 48.9% for the World Bank's gold price over the same months, so it largely followed the market; the exchange rate took off just 0.6%. Canada's total gold exports by weight were flat, and the United Kingdom took 92.5% of the rise outside the US. A customs destination shows where gold was shipped, not who bought it. ^{31, 32, 33}

From Tuesday, on one contract, Brent gained more than WTI, and gold carried most of Canada's export gain beyond the United States. Not established: what widened the spread, and who bought the gold.