Moves
Oil. WTI at Cushing ended the week at 98.73 US dollars a barrel, up 0.84. Brent spot (EIA's Europe Brent Spot Price FOB) fell 5.48 to 130.03. That left it 31.30 above WTI, from 37.62 a week earlier: Brent crude loaded in Europe still costs far more than crude at Cushing. 6, 7
Hormuz. Eleven tankers were attacked in the strait in the week to 4 October, the most since the war began, and five more this week, according to International Maritime Organization data. Exports through Hormuz ran at 8.5 million barrels a day in the week to Wednesday, about 40% below their prewar level, Kpler's data showed. 3
The US Gulf. Producers shut in about 1.3 million barrels a day of US Gulf oil, 63% of output, and 57% of gas as Hurricane Isaias approached. 8
Gas and the dollar. Henry Hub gas ended at 3.10 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 0.20. A US dollar bought 1.4271 Canadian at the Bank of Canada's Friday rate, against 1.4246 a week earlier. 9, 10
Policy watch
OPEC+ holds November output. On 4 October, seven OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) kept their required production for November at September's level. They meet again on November 1. 2
Shipping on notice in Hormuz. In a notice on Thursday, the Joint Maritime Information Center, a coalition of allied navies based in Bahrain, said the attacks "demonstrate Iran's intent to assert [its] presence along key transit lanes." 3
China's canola rollback has no end date; its suspensions do. The cut to China's duty on Canadian canola seed carries no time limit. The suspension of its tariffs on canola meal, peas, lobster and crab ends after December 31, and neither government has said what follows. The two sides meet at the Joint Economic and Trade Commission in China in late October. 4
Counter-tariffs a month in. Canada's matching tariffs on US goods have applied since September 8. They answer the US tariff of 50% on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods that took effect in late August. 5
Canada desk
Exports rose on diesel, not crude. Canada's merchandise exports rose 2.5% in August to $77.9 billion. Energy exports rose 4.7%, led by refined products, up 17.4% on diesel shipped to Peru, the United Kingdom, the United States and the Netherlands. Crude rose 2.1%, on higher prices. Exports to the United States jumped 8.1%, and the surplus with the United States widened to $11.2 billion from $6.1 billion, the largest monthly swing in that balance on record. Statistics Canada noted that tariff announcements can bring shipments forward. Exports to other countries fell 8.5% after July's record. 11
Jobs fell for a second month. Employment fell by 68,000 in September, and unemployment rose to 6.5% from 6.4%. Participation fell to 64.8%, its lowest since December 1997 outside 2020. Alberta went the other way: it added 23,000 jobs, and its unemployment rate fell to 6.4%. Quebec lost 49,000. 12
Pacific crude. In August, the western provinces sent 436,000 barrels a day of crude to Pacific destinations, level with a year earlier, and China took 72% of it. 1
Offshore Newfoundland. Shell agreed to take 30% of Equinor's Bay du Nord project in the Flemish Pass, ahead of an investment decision targeted for early 2027. 13
Signal of the Week
China takes most of Canada's Pacific crude
For crude from the western provinces, tankers from the Pacific coast are the way to buyers outside the United States. With Middle East supply under attack, how much of that crude Asia takes shows how far Canada's oil can sell beyond its largest customer. 1
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade Web Application (catalogue 71-607-X), domestic exports, HS 2709; August 2026 figures, released 2026-10-06; barrels at the Canada Energy Regulator's factor (6.2898 a cubic metre).
Monthly figures
| Month | China | Other Pacific destinations | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2024 | 0 | 16,000 | 16,000 |
| February 2024 | 0 | 63,000 | 63,000 |
| March 2024 | 0 | 32,000 | 32,000 |
| April 2024 | 0 | 35,000 | 35,000 |
| May 2024 | 18,000 | 5,000 | 23,000 |
| June 2024 | 144,000 | 150,000 | 294,000 |
| July 2024 | 59,000 | 194,000 | 253,000 |
| August 2024 | 54,000 | 208,000 | 261,000 |
| September 2024 | 55,000 | 209,000 | 264,000 |
| October 2024 | 233,000 | 174,000 | 407,000 |
| November 2024 | 129,000 | 131,000 | 260,000 |
| December 2024 | 146,000 | 201,000 | 347,000 |
| January 2025 | 167,000 | 219,000 | 386,000 |
| February 2025 | 171,000 | 186,000 | 357,000 |
| March 2025 | 204,000 | 236,000 | 440,000 |
| April 2025 | 189,000 | 265,000 | 454,000 |
| May 2025 | 149,000 | 292,000 | 441,000 |
| June 2025 | 129,000 | 211,000 | 340,000 |
| July 2025 | 132,000 | 229,000 | 361,000 |
| August 2025 | 185,000 | 249,000 | 435,000 |
| September 2025 | 185,000 | 208,000 | 393,000 |
| October 2025 | 484,000 | 102,000 | 586,000 |
| November 2025 | 414,000 | 119,000 | 532,000 |
| December 2025 | 254,000 | 147,000 | 401,000 |
| January 2026 | 302,000 | 130,000 | 432,000 |
| February 2026 | 288,000 | 75,000 | 363,000 |
| March 2026 | 371,000 | 88,000 | 459,000 |
| April 2026 | 274,000 | 154,000 | 428,000 |
| May 2026 | 297,000 | 86,000 | 382,000 |
| June 2026 | 306,000 | 161,000 | 467,000 |
| July 2026 | 316,000 | 149,000 | 465,000 |
| August 2026 | 315,000 | 121,000 | 436,000 |
Watching
- Hormuz: whether tanker traffic holds with attacks at their highest.
- The US Gulf: Isaias's landfall, and how fast output comes back.
- China and Canada: the Joint Economic and Trade Commission in late October, then Carney and Xi at APEC on November 18 and 19. 4
- The Bank of Canada: its next rate decision, with a Monetary Policy Report, on October 28. 14
- OPEC+: its next meeting, on November 1. 2
- Jobs: October's Labour Force Survey, on November 6. 12